The Government Actuary's Department (GAD) conducted a study using actuarial modeling to support pandemic preparedness. The work focuses on how uncertainty in the vaccine development process can influence decision-making in response to pandemic threats. The model takes into account various scenarios related to vaccine development timelines and effectiveness, and assesses how these factors reflect on response strategies employed by health authorities and the economy as a whole. This approach allows specialists to better understand the risks and potential economic consequences associated with delays or successes in vaccine development. Actuarial modeling is traditionally used to assess financial risks in insurance and pension provision; however, the application of such methods to analyze pandemic scenarios demonstrates an expansion in the use of this toolkit. The research results could be useful for government authorities in developing preparedness policies for future public health emergencies, as well as for more accurate forecasting of the economic effects of pandemics. GAD's work underscores the importance of quantitative analysis in decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, particularly in situations where the speed of developing medical solutions, such as vaccines, directly affects the scale and duration of a crisis. Such models could become part of a broader decision-support system for governments and healthcare organizations.